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Commercial Real Estate Debt Maturities: Shortfall & Implications

Executive Summary: Global capital markets in 2008 experience historic illiquidity, with nearly every major country's central banking system having to infuse capital directly into their member banks. These dramatic steps were taken to help keep banks solvent while they continued to absorb massive losses related to business, insurance, and real estate debt. This paper estimates the size of the commercial real estate debt financing needed in 2009 and beyond. The paper also seeks to further expand and update evolving investment possibilities, given the status of the capita markets in the United States in 2009 and the increasing and unprecedented high demand and low supply of debt available for the financing and refinancing of commercial real estate properties. By looking at the ten-year historic trends of exisiting commercial debt demand and supply, a forecast of future debt demand and supply shortfall through 2018 is developed. Then the potential impact on commercial mortgage pricing is discussed.

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